TL;DR
- WARC Media's Q3 2026 forecast, dated 7 October 2026, puts global ad spend at $1,343.0 billion in 2026, up 11.9%, then +8.4% to $1.46 trillion in 2027 and +7.9% to $1.57 trillion in 2028.
- Social media grows 21.3% to $394.6 billion (29.4% of the total); search grows 14.2% to $295.7 billion; retail media grows 14.3% to $202.1 billion and is now larger than TV at $176.2 billion.
- WARC Media expects Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to take 59.7% of ad spend outside China in 2026 ($659.6 billion), rising to 61.5% ($804.1 billion) in 2028.
- WARC's June 2026 revision had put 2026 growth at 8.9%; the Q3 update adds 3.0 points, citing corporate AI investment, the Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-terms.
- WARC's public release has no Thai figures; DAAT and Kantar's October 2026 update forecasts Thai digital ad spend of about THB 32,339 million in 2026, up only 0.3%.
WARC Media now forecasts global advertising spend to grow 11.9% to $1.343 trillion in 2026, with social media the fastest-growing channel at 21.3% to $394.6 billion. The figures come from WARC Media's Global Ad Spend Forecast Q3 2026, which WARC dated 7 October 2026 and distributed as a release on 8 October. Search is forecast to rise 14.2% to $295.7 billion and retail media 14.3% to $202.1 billion, while TV grows 1.2% this year and shrinks in 2027. The channel-level numbers in this article are from PPC Land's report on the WARC Media release; WARC's own article is behind a subscriber wall, and its public summary confirms the headline totals.
The headline numbers
According to WARC Media, global ad spend will reach $1,343.0 billion in 2026. That follows what WARC calls "strong 10.0% growth in 2024 and 2025". PPC Land notes that the release does not say whether 10.0% applies to each year or to the two years combined.
WARC Media expects growth to moderate to 8.4% in 2027, taking the total to $1.46 trillion, and to slow again to 7.9% in 2028, when spend reaches $1.57 trillion. WARC says the 2027 slowdown reflects "tougher comparables and a normalisation from the exceptionally strong growth seen in recent years." By WARC's account, the 2028 market will be 2.3 times the size it was in 2019.
The Q3 figure is a large upgrade. PPC Land reports that WARC's previous revision, published in June 2026, had put 2026 growth at 8.9%. The new forecast adds 3.0 percentage points in one quarter.
What WARC says is driving growth
WARC Media credits two things: "significant corporate AI investment" and a calendar full of large events, namely the Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-term elections. It also flags a downside risk: "further escalations of global tensions."
Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data, described the forecast as a contradiction. "Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending," she said, adding that the AI boom is benefiting "some companies, sectors and consumers more than others."
WARC describes AI as a driver of ad growth from several directions. New tech businesses are spending to acquire customers and build brands, established companies are spending to compete, and AI tools are improving targeting, asset creation and campaign optimisation, which WARC says is "boosting ROI and fueling further investment." Technology and electronics is forecast to be the fastest-growing product category in 2026, up 20.7%, followed by travel and transport at 19.3% and automotive at 17.8%. WARC says social media will take 40.2% of all technology and electronics ad spend this year.
Channel by channel
The table below shows WARC Media's 2026 forecast for social media, search, retail media, TV and online display, with WARC's growth rates for 2026 and 2027.
| Channel | 2026 spend (US$ bn) | Change 2026 / 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Social media | 394.6 | +21.3% / +14.6% |
| Search | 295.7 | +14.2% / +8.8% |
| Retail media | 202.1 | +14.3% / +10.8% |
| TV | 176.2 | +1.2% / -1.8% |
| Online display | 35.5 | -2.5% / -1.5% |
| Total, all channels | 1,343.0 | +11.9% / +8.4% |
Social media alone is 29.4% of the 2026 total. WARC expects it to pass $500 billion in 2028. Retail media, at $202.1 billion, is now larger than TV at $176.2 billion in WARC's table. Two smaller lines also grow by double digits in 2026: video on demand rises 15.1% to $48.4 billion and digital out-of-home rises 13.7% to $21.7 billion.
WARC Media's comment on the split is short: "Performance channels, which can adapt quickly to changing conditions, continue to benefit as uncertainty becomes the new norm."
Where spend is shrinking
Several lines fall in 2026, according to WARC Media: online display (-2.5%), newsbrands (-2.7%), magazine brands (-1.5%) and radio (-1.9%). All are forecast to fall again in 2027. TV's small gain this year, in a calendar that includes the Olympics, the World Cup and the US mid-terms, turns into a 1.8% decline in 2027, when none of those events recur.
Audio shows the same split inside one channel. Online audio grows 9.9% to $16.6 billion, while radio falls 1.9% to $25.3 billion. The online display figure is worth noting for anyone who still buys banner inventory: it is digital and auction-based, like social, yet WARC has it shrinking while social adds tens of billions.
Three channels and three companies
Social media, search and retail media together take 66.4% of global ad spend in 2026, according to WARC Media, and that share is forecast to reach 70.0% by 2028. PPC Land worked out that the three channels account for roughly 92% of all new ad money this year, about $131 billion of a roughly $143 billion increase. That 92% is PPC Land's own calculation from WARC's growth rates, not a WARC figure, and PPC Land notes it is approximate because the 2025 bases are not in the release.
Concentration also runs by company. WARC Media forecasts that Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will take 59.7% of global ad spend outside China in 2026, equal to $659.6 billion, rising to 61.5%, or $804.1 billion, in 2028. WARC titles that section of the release "AI fuels ad triopoly."
WARC also expects new ad inventory from AI products. "As generative search and AI assistants become gateways to product discovery and purchasing, ad dollars will follow," the release says. It gives no dollar figure for AI assistant advertising and does not say which channel such spend would fall into.
Spend per person
The release closes with ad spend per capita. WARC Media forecasts $1,395 per person in the US in 2026, $935 in the UK, $850 in Austria and $825 in Switzerland. China is at $170, Brazil at $110 and India at $13. WARC says lower-spending markets combine "lower per-capita spending with massive consumer populations," which it reads as growth potential as those markets mature. The public release does not include a figure for Thailand or a Southeast Asia breakdown.
What the release does not tell you
PPC Land based its report on a copy of the WARC Media release carried by Podnews. The full Q3 2026 report is available only to WARC Media subscribers, so several things are missing from the public version:
- No methodology, number of markets covered, or explanation of how platform revenues were split across channels.
- No APAC or country-level totals beyond the per-capita figures, and nothing on Thailand.
- No explanation of how the $48.4 billion video-on-demand figure relates to the $55.2 billion online video line.
- No dollar figure for advertising inside AI assistants or generative search.
Forecasts from different firms also use different definitions and baselines, so WARC's totals should be compared with WARC's earlier editions rather than with another company's numbers.
What this means for Thai marketers
This section is analysis. The global picture and the Thai picture are moving at very different speeds. On 5 October 2026 Relevant Audience covered the DAAT and Kantar update for Thailand, which forecasts Thai digital ad spend of about THB 32,339 million in 2026, up just 0.3%. Against WARC's 11.9% global growth, the Thai digital market is close to flat.
The direction inside the two markets is more similar than the totals. In the DAAT and Kantar figures, the lines growing fastest in Thailand are Social (+29%), E-Commerce (+28%) and TikTok (+16%), while Display (-24%), Online Video (-17%), YouTube (-15%) and LINE (-15%) shrink. Meta still holds the largest share at 25%, with TikTok at 24%. Search in Thailand is forecast at THB 1,594 million, a 5% share, down 2%. Globally, WARC has search growing 14.2%, a clear gap, although neither source says whether the two categories are defined the same way.
Three practical points follow for 2027 planning:
- Budget is moving to social and commerce channels in both data sets, and away from display. A plan that still gives display and pre-roll their old weight should be checked against where spend is actually going. For help planning Meta and TikTok as one paid social budget, see our social ads service.
- Retail media passing TV globally is a signal for Thai brands that sell through marketplaces. Commerce channels are where the growth is in both forecasts, and our e-commerce marketing service can help plan that spend.
- A flat search line in an industry total says nothing about whether one brand is under-investing in search demand. That is a question for your own data and your Google Ads account, not a market average.
The concentration point also applies locally. Globally WARC expects Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to take 61.5% of spend outside China by 2028. In Thailand, Meta and TikTok alone hold 49% of digital spend in the DAAT and Kantar figures. Auction prices on a few platforms will shape most results, which makes measurement on those platforms more important, not less.
FAQ
How much will global ad spend grow in 2026?
WARC Media forecasts global ad spend to grow 11.9% to $1.343 trillion in 2026, according to its Q3 2026 forecast released on 8 October 2026. It expects growth to slow to 8.4% in 2027 ($1.46 trillion) and 7.9% in 2028 ($1.57 trillion).
Which ad channel is growing fastest in 2026?
Social media is the fastest-growing channel in WARC Media's forecast, up 21.3% to $394.6 billion, or 29.4% of all ad spend. Search follows at +14.2% ($295.7 billion) and retail media at +14.3% ($202.1 billion).
Does the WARC forecast include Thailand?
Not in the public release, which gives no Thai or Southeast Asian figures. For Thailand, the DAAT and Kantar update from October 2026 forecasts digital ad spend of about THB 32,339 million in 2026, up 0.3%.
Is it true that 92% of new ad money goes to social, search and retail media?
That figure is PPC Land's calculation, not WARC's. WARC's own number is that the three channels take 66.4% of total ad spend in 2026, rising to 70.0% in 2028; PPC Land estimated their share of the year's increase at around 92% from WARC's growth rates.
How much of global ad spend do Alphabet, Amazon and Meta take?
WARC Media forecasts that the three companies take 59.7% of global ad spend outside China in 2026, or $659.6 billion. It expects that to rise to 61.5%, or $804.1 billion, in 2028.
The bottom line
WARC's Q3 forecast confirms that global ad money is growing fast and moving to social, search and retail media, mostly through three companies. Thailand is growing far more slowly but shows a similar shift toward social and commerce. If you are setting 2027 budgets and want a second view on the channel mix, the Relevant Audience team can help.
