TL;DR
- Madison and Wall estimates automated or AI campaign types such as Performance Max and Advantage+ handle 12% of US ad spend in 2026, up from 2% in 2023.
- The firm projects AI-directed US ad spend of $158 billion, 27% of the market, by 2030, as reported by Digiday on 10 September 2026.
- The IAB raised its 2026 US ad spend growth forecast to 12.3% from 9.5%, led by social (+16.5%), CTV (+15.6%) and commerce media (+13.6%).
- Meta CFO Susan Li said the Advantage+ run rate is on track for $75 billion in 2026, up from $60 billion in 2025.
Automated and AI campaign types such as Google's Performance Max and Meta's Advantage+ will handle 12% of US ad spend in 2026, up from 2% in 2023, according to estimates from research consultancy Madison and Wall reported by Digiday on 10 September 2026. The same firm projects AI-directed spend reaching $158 billion, or 27% of the US ad market, by 2030. Separately, the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) raised its forecast for US ad spend growth this year to 12.3%, from a previous estimate of 9.5%.
These are forecasts, and they are US figures. They are still worth reading closely, because they put numbers on a shift most advertisers already feel inside their accounts: more of the budget is going through campaign types where the platform, not the advertiser, decides placements, audiences and bids.
The forecast revisions
IAB: US growth revised to 12.3%
The IAB now expects US advertising spend to grow 12.3% in 2026, up from 9.5% in its earlier estimate. IAB chief executive David Cohen attributed the upward revision to strong spending around the Winter Olympics and soccer's World Cup, saying the first half was strong, major live events delivered, and advertisers have increasingly powerful tools for finding and engaging customers.
The IAB also broke growth down by channel. Most of the year's growth, it estimates, comes from social media, commerce media and connected TV, while two channels are expected to shrink slightly.
Madison and Wall: global growth of 11%
Madison and Wall estimated global ad spend will grow 11% this year, or 9.8% excluding US political advertising, to more than $1.3 trillion. It put global growth in the second quarter at 12.9%.
| Forecast | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US ad spend growth, 2026 | 12.3% (previous estimate 9.5%) | IAB |
| Global ad spend growth, 2026 | 11% (9.8% ex US political), to over $1.3 trillion | Madison and Wall |
| Share of US ad spend through AI or automated campaign types | 12% in 2026, up from 2% in 2023 | Madison and Wall |
| AI-directed US ad spend, 2030 | $158 billion, 27% of the US market | Madison and Wall |
| US channel growth, 2026 | Social +16.5%, CTV +15.6%, commerce media +13.6%, digital out-of-home -0.4%, non-CTV digital video -0.2% | IAB |
What "AI-directed spend" means here
Madison and Wall's category covers money spent through automated or AI campaign types, the kind where an advertiser sets a goal, a budget and creative assets and the platform decides much of the rest. Performance Max and Advantage+ are the examples Digiday named. Digiday also noted that Reddit, Pinterest and TikTok each offer automated campaign types of their own.
Madison and Wall's figure for total US ad spend excluding political is $479 billion, and 12% of that is AI-directed. On simple arithmetic that is in the region of $57 billion this year, rising to the $158 billion the firm projects for 2030. The firm's managing director, Luke Stillman, put the growth down to convenience for both small and large advertisers and described it as a share shift, which reads as budgets moving from manually managed campaigns into automated ones rather than new money appearing.
The platform numbers behind the trend
Two platform data points in the Digiday report give the forecast some grounding.
- Meta Advantage+. Meta's chief financial officer Susan Li said on the company's July earnings call that the Advantage+ annual run rate is on track to reach $75 billion this year, up from $60 billion in 2025. She said Meta is working to deepen adoption because advertisers using multiple tools see compounding performance gains.
- Google Search. Digiday reported that close to 30% of Google's search spend now runs through AI Max or Performance Max.
Digiday also reported that Madison and Wall expects Alphabet, Meta and Amazon together to take 60% of all ad revenue in North America and 59% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The platforms that sell automated campaign types are the same companies taking most of the money.
Why the share keeps rising
The Digiday report points to a mix of pull and push. On the pull side, automated campaigns are easier to launch and manage, which is the convenience Stillman described for both small and large advertisers. On the push side, platforms make these campaign types the default. RA has covered several steps in that direction this year, including Google blocking new campaign-level broad match settings ahead of its AI Max migration and Meta removing the option to exclude ad placements. Each change narrows the space where a manually built campaign can differ from an automated one.
There is also a supply reason. Digiday reported that Google's AI Max, an automated campaign type, is currently the only way for brands to buy advertising against AI content on Google. If more of the results page becomes generated answers, that is inventory a manually built campaign cannot reach.
The caution in the same report
The Digiday piece was not uncritical. Practitioners it spoke to said adoption is significant among their clients, but also repeated a long-running complaint: tools like Performance Max have been criticised as a media "black box" that shows advertisers little about where money went. One media buyer compared AI campaign types to using a chatbot, where poor context produces a poor answer. That point is practical rather than philosophical. Automated campaigns optimise toward the conversion signal and assets they are given, so weak tracking or thin creative is amplified, not corrected.
What the source did not say
The report does not give Madison and Wall's methodology for classifying spend as AI-directed, and it does not publish a figure for Asia-Pacific or Thailand. It does not say whether automated campaigns deliver better returns than manual ones, only that more money goes through them. The 30% share of Google search spend is reported without a date range. Forecasts for 2030 are projections that depend on platform decisions not yet made.
What to check in your own accounts
More budget flowing into automated campaign types is not in itself good or bad for a given advertiser. What decides the outcome is what the automation is fed and how closely it is watched.
- Audit the conversion signal first. In Google Ads and Meta, confirm the primary conversion actions are the ones that represent real business value. An automated campaign optimising toward page views or low-quality form fills will find more of them, efficiently.
- Check how much of your spend is already automated. Add up Performance Max, AI Max and Advantage+ spend as a share of total, and make sure that share is a decision rather than the result of accepting platform defaults.
- Keep a measurable control. Where volume allows, run a structured campaign alongside the automated one, or use platform experiments, so there is a baseline to compare against.
- Feed better creative. Supply enough image, video and text variations for the system to test, and refresh them before they fatigue.
- Use the controls that remain. Brand exclusions, negative keyword lists, audience signals and final URL settings still shape what automation does. Review them monthly.
- Report on business outcomes. Platform-reported conversions from automated campaigns should be reconciled against CRM or sales data at least monthly.
What this means for Thai marketers
The figures in the report are for the US and global markets; there is no Thai breakdown. The mechanics are the same in Thailand, because Performance Max, AI Max and Advantage+ are the same products in Thai accounts, and both Google and Meta push them as defaults here too. For Thai advertisers the practical priority is measurement quality: server-side events, offline conversion imports from LINE chats or phone calls where possible, and clear primary conversions, so that automated bidding learns from real sales. A structured Google Ads setup and a well-instrumented Facebook Ads account let automation work with good data, and a combined social ads plan helps decide how much budget should sit in automated campaign types at all.
Frequently asked questions
How much US ad spend goes through AI campaign types?
Madison and Wall estimates 12% of US ad spend in 2026 runs through automated or AI campaign types such as Performance Max and Advantage+, up from 2% in 2023. It projects 27%, or $158 billion, by 2030.
Why did the IAB raise its US ad spend forecast?
The IAB raised its 2026 growth estimate to 12.3% from 9.5% mainly because of strong spending around the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, according to chief executive David Cohen. Social media, CTV and commerce media account for much of the growth.
How big is Meta Advantage+?
Meta's CFO Susan Li said in July that the Advantage+ annual run rate is on track to reach $75 billion in 2026, up from $60 billion in 2025.
Are there figures for Thailand?
No, the forecasts in the report cover the US and global totals only. The campaign types involved are the same in Thai Google Ads and Meta accounts.
Should I move more budget into Performance Max or Advantage+?
Not on the strength of these forecasts alone. They show where money is going, not whether it performs better; the decision should rest on your own conversion data and a tested comparison.
Automation handles more of the budget every year, and the advertisers who do well with it are the ones who control what it learns from. If you want a review of how your automated campaigns are set up and measured, talk to Relevant Audience.
