Adobe forecasts record $275.1 billion US online holiday spend, with AI-referred traffic up 130%

Adobe forecast on 28 September 2026 that US online holiday spending between 1 November and 31 December 2026 will reach $275.1 billion, up 6.7% year over year. In the same Adobe press release, the company expects traffic from AI-powered chat and browser services to retail sites to rise 130% year over year, and says affiliates and partners (up 12%) and social media (up 17%) will gain more share of revenue than paid search (up 4%). The data covers the United States only.

The headline numbers

Adobe says its forecast is based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, analysing direct online transactions. The season total of $275.1 billion is a forecast, not a measured result, and Adobe's release carries the standard note that statements about future events could differ from actual results.

The release also splits the season into the days that carry the most spend. The table below lists the figures Adobe published for the key dates, with the year-over-year growth Adobe attached to each.

Two readings follow from the table. Cyber Monday is the largest single day at $15.1 billion, yet Black Friday grows faster (9.2% against 6.2%). Cyber Week accounts for 17.3% of the season total, according to the release, which defines it as the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. The $95.8 billion October figure shows that a large block of spend lands before the season Adobe counts as the holiday period.

Growth is steady rather than spectacular

A 6.7% rise is a moderate pace. Several individual days grow faster than the season as a whole: Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Prime Day all grow between 8.5% and 9.2%, while the full two-month season grows 6.7%. That suggests spend is concentrating on a few peak days. This is arithmetic from the published figures, and Adobe's release does not offer its own explanation. It also does not mention inflation, tariffs or consumer financial constraints.

Categories: grocery and toys grow fastest

Adobe published spend and growth for six categories. The ranking by growth differs from the ranking by size, which matters when deciding where to put budget.

Electronics and apparel are the two largest categories and also the two slowest. Grocery, toys and cosmetics are smaller but each grows at roughly 10%. A retailer in apparel is competing for a pool growing 4.7%, while a grocery seller is in a pool growing 10.3%, so the same budget increase means different things in each.

Discounts: what Adobe expects shoppers to see

Adobe projects discounts of up to 30% at the peak, during Cyber Week, up to 14% in early November, up to 21% in the run-up to Thanksgiving and 10% to 15% in December. For Prime Day, it states a peak discount of 19% off the listed price. By category, Adobe lists electronics at 30% (30.1% in 2025), toys at 29% (28%), TVs at 23% (24.2%), computers at 23% (22.8%), apparel at 23% (23.2%), sporting goods at 19% (19.5%), appliances at 18% (19.2%) and furniture at 18% (19%).

Those category comparisons show small movements. Toys discount slightly deeper than last year, while appliances, furniture and TVs discount slightly less. Adobe also names the best day for each group: Cyber Monday for electronics and computers; Black Friday for TVs, toys, apparel, appliances and furniture; and Thanksgiving for sporting goods. That is a useful scheduling input for paid campaigns, because it shows which day the deepest category discounts are expected.

Mobile and buy now, pay later

Mobile accounts for 57.4% of season spend, up from 56.4% in 2025, and 63% on Thanksgiving, up from 61.6%. Buy now, pay later is forecast at $21.3 billion for the season, up 6.6%, with $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday and $807 million on Black Friday. Adobe says 82% of buy now, pay later transactions happen on mobile. For advertisers, the checkout flow on a phone, including payment options, is where the largest share of the money is decided.

AI-referred traffic: up 130%

Adobe expects AI traffic to retail sites to grow 130% year over year across the season, with Thanksgiving up 159%, Black Friday up 95% and Cyber Monday up 88%. The release defines this as shoppers clicking on a link from AI-powered chat and browser services, so it measures referral visits, not purchases completed inside an AI product.

Adobe also reports a survey of 5,000 consumers, fielded in July 2026. Among shoppers who use AI, 77% said they have more confidence in their purchase and 69% said they are less likely to return an item they bought. These are self-reported answers from AI users, not a measure of actual return rates. The part of the release reviewed does not give the survey's countries or sampling method.

The 130% figure is a growth rate, not a share. The release does not say what fraction of total traffic or revenue comes from AI referrals, so a large percentage increase may still start from a small base. A retailer should look at its own analytics for the AI referral source before assuming it will be material.

Channel mix: social and affiliates gain share

Adobe's wording is that affiliates and partners and social media overall are set to see the biggest gains in share of revenue, up 12% and 17% respectively, while paid search is expected to rise 4%. In the affiliate breakdown, cashback and rewards partners make up 36% of affiliate traffic and influencers and creators make up 22%.

The part of the release reviewed does not publish the absolute revenue split among search, social and affiliates, so these are growth rates, not size comparisons. Search can still be the largest channel and grow the slowest. The direction is still clear: Adobe expects paid search to grow more slowly than social and affiliate revenue over the period.

Essentials and hot sellers

For Cyber Week against a September 2026 baseline, Adobe reports increases in personal hygiene products (up 150%), clothing basics (up 210%), baby products (up 113%), pet products (up 93%) and household cleaning items (up 49%). The release also lists expected hot sellers, including Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5 and Pro, Xbox Series X, AirPods Pro 3, Meta AI Glasses, LEGO Pokemon sets and Jellycat plush toys. A hot-seller list is useful for inventory and feed planning, but the part reviewed does not say how it was compiled.

What to check before Q4 budgets are set

These checks follow from the published figures. They are not recommendations from Adobe.

• Compare your own 2025 results with Adobe's growth rates for your category. If your category is apparel, 4.7% is the reference; for grocery, 10.3%.
• Map campaign calendars to the best discount days Adobe names for your categories.
• Check your mobile checkout, since mobile is 57.4% of spend and 63% on Thanksgiving, and look at whether buy now, pay later is offered.
• Look for AI referral sources in your analytics and measure them against 2025, instead of assuming the 130% applies to your store.
• Review the split between paid search and the social, affiliate and creator channels that Adobe expects to gain share.
• Record that the figures are forecasts, and compare them with measured numbers once the season starts.

What the release does not say

The part of the release reviewed carries no quotes from named executives, contains no figures for any country other than the United States, does not state the 2025 season total in dollars, and does not give the share of revenue that AI referrals represent. It also does not discuss inflation, tariffs or consumer finances. Adobe states in its disclaimer that it does not warrant the material is accurate or free of errors and has no responsibility to update it.

What this means for Thai marketers

The data is for US online retail, and Adobe's release has no Thai angle. It is useful as a global planning benchmark rather than a Thai forecast: it shows how a mature ecommerce market is expected to split growth between channels, devices and categories. Thai retailers selling to US customers can use the dates and discount patterns directly. Others can use it to test assumptions, such as whether paid search deserves the same share of the Q4 budget as in prior years. Planning for ecommerce marketing, Google Ads and paid social can reference these growth rates, with the caveat that Thai conditions may differ.

Frequently asked questions

How much will US shoppers spend online during the 2026 holidays?

Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion for 1 November to 31 December 2026, up 6.7% year over year. The forecast is based on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 categories. It is a projection, so actual results may differ.

Which day is the biggest?

Cyber Monday on 30 November is the largest single day at $15.1 billion, up 6.2%, according to Adobe. Black Friday is smaller at $12.9 billion but grows faster at 9.2%. Cyber Week as a whole is forecast at $47.5 billion, or 17.3% of the season.

How much will AI-referred traffic grow?

Adobe expects AI traffic to retail sites to rise 130% year over year, with Thanksgiving up 159%, Black Friday up 95% and Cyber Monday up 88%. Adobe defines this as shoppers clicking a link from AI chat and browser services. It does not state the share of total traffic or sales that this represents.

Is paid search still growing?

Yes, but more slowly than the other channels Adobe names: paid search revenue share is expected to rise 4%, against 12% for affiliates and partners and 17% for social media. Adobe gives these as growth in share of revenue, not absolute amounts.

Does this data apply to Thailand?

No, the release covers US retail sites only and says nothing about Thailand. It can serve as a general benchmark for planning, but Thai retailers should rely on their own local data for forecasts.

If you are planning Q4 ecommerce budgets across search, social and AI referral traffic, RA can help you test these benchmarks against your own account data.